The
news was disappointing for every one of the major players. AMD dropped 13.6%,
Intel slipped the least, just 2.9%, and Nvidia declined the most with 16.7%
quarter-to-quarter change, this coming on the heels of a spectacular third
quarter. The overall PC market actually grew 2.8% quarter-to-quarter while the
graphics market declined 8.2% reflecting a decline in double-attach. That may be
attributed to Intel's improved embedded graphics, finally making "good enough" a
true statement.
On
a year-to-year basis we found that total graphics shipments during Q4'12 dropped
11.5% as compared to PCs which declined by 5.6% overall. GPUs are traditionally
a leading indicator of the market, since a GPU goes into every system before it
is shipped and most of the PC vendors are guiding down for Q1'13.
The
turmoil in the PC market has caused us to modify our forecast since the last
report; it is less aggressive on both desktops and notebooks. The popularity of
tablets and the persistent recession are the contributing factors that have
altered the nature of the PC market. Nonetheless, the CAGR for PC graphics from
2012 to 2016 is 3.2%, and we expect the total shipments of graphics chips in
2016 to be 549 million units.
The
ten-year average change for graphics shipments for quarter-to-quarter is a
growth of -1.3%. This quarter is below the average with an 8.2% decrease.
Our
findings include discrete and integrated graphics (CPU and chipset) for
Desktops, Notebooks (and Netbooks), and PC-based commercial (i.e., POS) and
industrial/scientific and embedded. This report does not include handhelds
(i.e., mobile phones), x86 Servers or ARM-based Tablets (i.e. iPad and
Android-based Tablets), Smartbooks, or ARM-based Servers. It does include
x86-based tablets.
The
quarter in general
- AMD's
quarter-to-quarter total shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e.,
APUs increased 0.8% from Q3 and declined 19.1% in notebooks. The company's
overall PC graphics shipments slipped 13.6%.
- Intel's
quarter-to-quarter desktop processor-graphics EPG shipments increased from
last quarter by 3%, and Notebooks fell by 6.76%. The company's overall PC
graphics shipments dropped 2.9%.
- Nvidia's
quarter-to-quarter desktop discrete shipments fell 15.1% from last quarter;
and, the company's mobile discrete shipments dropped 18.4%. The company's
overall PC graphics shipments declined 16.7%.
- Year to
year this quarter AMD shipments declined 29.4%, Intel dropped 5%, Nvidia
slipped 4.6%, and VIA fell 10% from last year.
- Total
discrete GPUs (desktop and notebook) 15.9% from the last quarter and were down
9.7% from last year for the same quarter due to the same problems plaguing the
overall PC industry. Overall the trend for discrete GPUs is up with a CAGR to
2016 of 3.2%.
Ninety
nine percent of Intel's non-server processors have graphics, and over 67% of
AMD's non-server processors contain integrated graphics; AMD still ships
IGPs.
Year
to year for the quarter the graphics market decreased. Shipments were down 3
million units from the same quarter last year.
|
|
Market
share this quarter |
Market
share last Qtr |
Unit
Change Qtr-to-qtr |
Share
Difference Qtr-to-qtr |
Market
Share last yr. |
|
AMD |
19.7% |
21.0% |
-13.6% |
-1.2% |
24.8% |
|
Intel |
63.4% |
60.0% |
-2.9% |
3.4% |
59.2% |
|
Nvidia |
16.9% |
18.6% |
-16.7% |
-1.73% |
15.7% |
|
Matrox |
0.00% |
0.0% |
-100.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
VIA/S3 |
0.0% |
0.4% |
-100.0% |
-0.4% |
0.4% |
|
Total |
100.0% |
100.0% |
-8.2% |
|
100.2% |
Table
1: Total Graphics Chip Market shares (Jon Peddie Research)
Graphics
chips (GPUs) and chips with graphics (IGPs, APUs, and EPGs) are a leading
indicator for the PC market. At least one and often two GPUs are present in
every PC shipped. It can take the form of a discrete chip, a GPU integrated in
the chipset or embedded in the CPU. The average has grown from 1.2 GPUs per PC
in 2001 to almost 1.4 GPUs per PC.
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